Axis of Hope relates to Global Economy, peace, lifestyle and happiness August 11, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, Politics and economy.add a comment
President Bush famously declared Axis of evil and made the phrase famous, and popular.
There is lot more to it then just naming the three countries that do not have good relationship with US. If president or king or prime minister of every country start declaring the three countries as part of their axis of evil, soon all the countries on the earth and may be other planets will be part of it. You know in Asia we hold other planet responsible for lot of bad things that happen on the Earth.
In fact if rather then politician, real people were asked to name the three countries that were responsible for destroying the peace, prosperity, economy and happy living, it could be a interesting finding. Let us see if Newsweek or Nielsen or somebody capable takes the challenge and publish the report.
Obama, US presidential candidate declared in Germany that Europe and US have lot of responsibility for being a global citizen. I wish he would have said that entire humanity has the right to live in peace and let us all come together and make it happen.
There are three countries that are always involved whenever there is any dis-order in the world, rest of the countries are just tagging along. These countries are, Russia, US, and China. Now let us see if there was any big issue, war or economy, where these countries were not directly involved. It is hard to come up with a meaningful list where they are not involved.
What is the Axis of Hope: World would be a great place to live if the three countries Russia, US and China came together and started focusing on the well being of humanity and the fellow people of their country. All they have to quict trying to rule the world. No body has been able to do it, lot of people have tried it before. God bless us all.
If you have a question, about Global economy and Politics correlation, feel free to ask.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
Twenty Minute Lifestyle (TM) for Global Prosperity July 23, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, Real Estate Development in Global Economy.add a comment
Concept of Twenty minute Lifestyle if followed vigorously can fast track the world to prosperity and get us out of this dooms day forecast everybody is making. This is a bold statement, yes, but is based on real thought process and not Jim Cramers way of making you rich without any accountability.
What is Twenty Minute Lifestyle - This is a very old concept refined over million of years, and all the great civilization have used it. The concept now has been refined to accomodate bigger population. Population of the world is likely to reach 7 B by 2013, compared to earth’s ability to manage about 1.5 to 2 B people with balance in nature. This means more apartment based living as opposed to open huge house. It is simple, you provide for most of the need for the people in a community centric environment. People live in peace with each other and nature. All the activity for everyday life including housing, commercial, entertainment, health care, shopping were included in this community. People visited other communities for meeting friends, relatives and that is how tourism was promoted.
How this concept will help different industries and countries.
Energy - No excessive usage of oil, people mostly walked to different facilities, used solar power efficiently. This will create a significant new industry around solar energy. Oil usage will reduce dramatically and there is plenty of oils for million of years if used in this fashion. Oil should be at Dollar 6 to 8 per gallon in US to encourage people use energy efficiently.
Politics - Talking about the global economy and prosperity without addressing US election and the political alignment of other country is hard. Both Obama or Mcain can embrace this concept and address the dominant issue that US faces related to economy. I predict, the candidate who embraces this will win the election. Same is true for other countries. Economy has to become local while leveraging global information flow, everybody can not create vibrant economy just by exporting.
Manufacturing - will be done locally for most of the items. There is no need for a can of tomato to be produced in mexico, packed, and shipped to US for consumption or for that matter anything. Economy of scale will be achieved by sharing the knowledge not by co-locating all the manufacturing in one country.
Environment - There is no need for so much packaging and shipping. Less waste, less oil burning will create blue sky. There is no need to cut forest in Brazil to create Soy, or to cut forest to makes wooden houses, or to destroy the Oceans by drilling there in a reckless way. If possible put a green tax. Do not panic if I said more tax, Trust me, it will lead to innovation. Light material for planes, solar energy, electric car charged using solar energy, local farming.
Financial - companies will benefit because there will be significant developed of public infrastructure, housing, etc. People will buy stuff and financial company will make money by giving loans to business and families.
Healthcare- People will benefit from healthy living. More walk, less stress, more family time, all of this will result in lower spending on health care and better health.
Real Estate - Biggest beneficiary. All new development for housing, commercial, etc around the public infrastructure.
All the economic benefit are quantified and well documented. They can be made available for discussion about any specific question.
If you have a question, about Global economy, feel free to ask.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
Strong future Global Economy - Four legs of the table? July 10, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, Real Estate Development in Global Economy.add a comment
Which country, region will have strong future economy if future is defined as next five to ten years. This is a complicated question, best answer is, it depends on unknowns. If we were to make an attempt to identify the key factors, at this time I will identify, Energy, food, commodity, and consumers as the four major factors.
Energy - What is it? it is not just oil, it is all form of energy that can be generated, converted, stored and used. It is not going to be all about rising demand but also making the energy usage efficient. When oil prices go high, innovation will lead to more efficient usage and alternative energy usage.
Food - Any thing that is consumed to provide energy or pleasure to living beings, human or animal, is food. Some of you will argue that human are also evolved animals. Does not matter.
Commodity - These are items mother earth provides, unfortunately we can only use them and can not create more of it. This is iron ore, metals, water, etc.
Consumers - to simplify, I am referring only to population of living beings.
How many of the above legs a region or country need to control, to create economic future? It depends on the motivation of the people living there, political leadership, defense capability, etc. If everything was equal, you could argue that country with maximum consumers should win, not really, they need food, they need energy and commodity. Country that controls the other three legs can win? not always. It depends on the technology, defense capability, political leadership, etc.
What is the answer? Based on the current environment, America, India, China are well positioned. They seem to have the combination of different factors in their favor. What about Middle East, Russia, Australia? long term economic prosperity is not certain as they are too dependent only on commodity.
If you have a question, about Global economy, feel free to ask.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
LEED-INDIA: Innovation in Real Estate June 13, 2008
Posted by Andrew Myers in Real Estate Development in Global Economy.add a comment
Innovation in real estate is moving in the direction of sustainable development, also known as green-building. Although this is a relatively new concept to much of the world, Europe has been leading the way for decades. The United States followed, and the United States Green-Building Council (USGBC) emerged in 1993 and began to formalize a process of sustainable design and construction. The Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) process has become the standard and benchmark for sustainable development in the US and now abroad. In terms of commercial development, the construction and certification processes extend from New Construction to Core & Shell to Commercial Interiors to several others, with many new programs coming to market.
Andrew Myers
India is following suit. They have established the India Green Building Council (www.igbc.in) and implemented LEED-INDIA. Currently LEED-INDIA programs include LEED for New Construction and LEED for Core and Shell. India has vast opportunity for sustainable development as infrastructure and real estate development grows at impressively high rates. The IGBC has the following: 306 members, 230 registered buildings, and 23 certified buildings. Expect to see these numbers increase significantly in the near future as the country hopes to be a world leader in green buildings by 2010. It is the wave of the future, and emerging economies are beginning to see the value and benefits associated with sustainable development.
If you have a question or would like to initiate a discussion, feel free to post a comment.
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Andrew Myers
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
Offshoring - Key element of business strategy in global economy June 12, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, IT Offshoring - Future Direction.add a comment
Ask the question “What is offshoring” answer will depend on who you ask.
somebody from China - Move manufacturing to China, India - Move your IT work to India, Germany - Move your engineering to Germany, Russia - Move your satellite Launch to Russia, USA - Move your innovation to Silicon Vally and investment banking to Newyork.
Offshoring has been used for thousands of years. East India company went to India and started trading spices and cotton, etc. that is the situation where offshoring was used as part of business strategy.
How can global company use offshoring as a competitive advantage. Leverage the core competency of people in different part of the wold and also the natural resources that are available in different part of the world. However, that is the entry point. From there, learn the local culture, build operation and sell them your product and services customized for them. Future of offshoring will be defined by the companies that will use this as a entry point in a country and expand from there. Those who will use offshoring just for leveraging the cost differential, will continue to chase the cost advantage and be marginaly successful.
Currently some of the large technology company, Dell, HP, Financial services company such as HSBC, Citi, DB, consumer company, P&G, Sony are using offshoring the right way, others are just working on the cost differential. True offshoring strategy should be a long term competitive advantage.
If you have a question, about offshore strategy, feel free to ask.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
Global Economy .vs. US economy and Financial services June 11, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy.add a comment
There is sub-prime associated with housing, there is CDO linked to construction, and commercial real estate. Financial services company made money along every step. Derivatives, futures, and all other kind of fancy products. Now that curtain has been lifted, we can see there are kind of manipulation and incompetence. Rating agency, insurance company all participated and money. Just about sixty days back, every CEO, government official and fed were saying, things are under control, and now there is new wave of write off, followed by the right issue, debt etc. Was this another wrong judgment or intentional posturing so that at least the financial services company were able to raise significant money at better valuation. High oil price are related to demand .vs. supply or rest of the world is being made to pay for their sin of providing the subsidy to poor people who could not get enough fuel to cook a meal at home or is it another manipulation to make sure that the inflation for rest of word is high when we are trying to get our house ?in order.
We all know that we have a pretty significant financial exposure related to overvalued financial papers. When we will get to the bottom of it so rest of world can live in peace. You have an insight? share it with the world.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
US economy, stock market .vs. BRIC economy, stock market June 3, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy.add a comment
How linked is US economy to US stock market .vs. BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economy and stock market and everything in between. There are so many factors beyond anybody control that it is hard to predict. However, there are some macro issues that are going to effect everything. 1) US Sub-prime and real estate market - financial institutions may be able to get their act together in next year or so, effect at the consumer level will be felt for three to five years across the world, 2) US current account and trade deficit, 3) Impact of subsidy in BRIC countries and its effect on inflation, interest rate, current account deficit, and currency reserve will take a lot of courage to solve the problem. Europe and middle east have their own problem with oil, absence of critical mass of consumers, educated work force, and currency.
One theory is that high oil price and food price are good for America. America controls lot of middle east money, abundance of food, media control, and defense superiority, that will make US a winner. Other theory is that China, India, USSR, some middle east combination will re-shape the global economy. I am sure there are lot of other theory out there. Do not hesitate to share one.
Will US stock market do well because of US economy or global economy? What about the stock market in BRIC country? It depends on which theory you believe and then make the prediction based on the analysis of that reality. Until then, stay tuned.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
Unpredicatbale Oil price makes the global economy unpredictable May 28, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy.add a comment
What will be the oil price in next twelve months, or five years. Speculators can make or loose money in he short term but can not predict the price based on any fundamental analysis. Economist can make guess and show up CNBC if it turns out to be true, Ask them to put their money based on their prediction and they will run like there is no tomorrow.
How the economy of the countries will behave? Will oil price subsidy will start consuming the significant foreign reserve if they have it? Will it cause inflation or result into innovation of the alternative energy and re-alignment of the lifestyle to make the economy grow. Only time will tell the answer.
It seems like US is in the strong position so far as the economy is concerned only if it choose to act. There are several things US can do to get back on the growth path and lead the world.
Graceful withdrawal from Iraq - There will be big change in the psychology and current account deficit. Make the US economy more robust.
Sub-Prime bubble - In next twelve month US financial institutions will be in a stronger position and better prepared to focus on growth. You hope that both financial institution and consumer have adjusted to the current reality.
Social Security and Health Care cost - Reduce the benefit, encourage saving and tell public the truth about the situation. American are very forgiving if you tell the truth.
Allow Oil drilling in Alaska - Reduce the oil dependence and reduction in the trade deficit. Remember huge amount of our trade deficit comes from oil import and not from other sources.
Lead alternative energy innovation - US is spending big on alternative energy and has the opportunity to take the lead on world energy solution.
Stop managing dollar - Let market define the dollar strength against the world currency
Which country has the opportunity to lead the next phase of global economy? USA.
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
IT Offshoring - Challanges of currency, inflation, infrastructure, and innovation May 28, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in IT Offshoring - Future Direction, IT offshoring and Real Estate development.add a comment
IT offshoring has been a significant driver for lot of countries including India. Party will not last forever. Countries have to learn to justify the value proposition in the face of currency, inflation, infrastructure, and future technology innovation.
As economy gets stronger, currency is likely to get strong which in turn destroys the cost advantage. Inflation puts pressure on the companies to give pay raise, lack of infrastructure makes it hard to keep expanding the operation, and Business will stop seeing the value in offshoring.
Future of offshoring in these countries will be defined by providing innovative solution to above problem. One of the solution is to build a network of micro-cities that are safe, and self sufficient. Result is productivity improvement by eliminating the commute time, better quality of life, efficient land usage, and efficient usage of infrastructure spending.
One area that is being largely ignored by these offshoring destination is how to stay relevant in the wake of future technology innovation. Let us say lot of transaction processing is being moved to some of these offshore center. what happens to these operation when transaction processing gets automated?
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Bipin Agarwal
http://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/
High Oil price - Good for everybody May 24, 2008
Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Real Estate Development in Global Economy.1 comment so far
It is easy to be short term focused and say high oil price is not good. Let us look at why high oil price is good for everybody.
Environment - Take a note, Oil is the biggest source of pollution. high oil price means less oil consumption. It has been proven time and again, that users and providers of energy will innovate and find new sources of energy.
Real Estate & Infrastructure - Real estate development will accelerate all over the world as people will try to move close to hub of public transport. New community development will be more organized with walk to different facilitiies. There will be significant investment in public infrastructure.
Auto Industry - Trust me, the industry will re-invent itself to provide the cars that do not use oil. New cars will replace the older cars, significant sales.
Oil Industry- Industry will re-cast itself as energy industry and find alternative energy sources.
Transportation - Rail industry is particularly likely to benefit. Shipping, truck, and airplane users will invest significantly to use alternative source of energy.
Financial Services - Companies will be ready to arrange financiing for business and consumer as new growth happens.
Technology - There will be significant investment to find killer technology. Biofuel, nuclear will be the looser. They create more problem then solve.
Feel free to let me know if you think a particular industry, country, or demographic will not benefit in the long run from high oil price.
http://www.redhawkinvestments.com
Bipin Agarwal