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Strong future Global Economy – Four legs of the table? July 10, 2008

Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, Real Estate Development in Global Economy.
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Which country, region will have strong future economy if future is defined as next five to ten years. This is a complicated question, best answer is, it depends on unknowns. If we were to make an attempt to identify the key factors, at this time I will identify, Energy, food, commodity, and consumers as the four major factors.

Energy – What is it? it is not just oil, it is all form of energy that can be generated, converted, stored and used. It is not going to be all about rising demand but also making the energy usage efficient. When oil prices go high, innovation will lead to more efficient usage and alternative energy usage.

Food – Any thing that is consumed to provide energy or pleasure to living beings, human or animal, is food. Some of you will argue that human are also evolved animals. Does not matter.

Commodity – These are items mother earth provides, unfortunately we can only use them and can not create more of it. This is iron ore, metals, water, etc.

Consumers – to simplify, I am referring only to population of living beings.

How many of the above legs a region or country need to control, to create economic future? It depends on the motivation of the people living there, political leadership, defense capability, etc. If everything was equal, you could argue that country with maximum consumers should win, not really, they need food, they need energy and commodity. Country that controls the other three legs can win? not always. It depends on the technology, defense capability, political leadership, etc.

What is the answer? Based on the current environment, America, India, China are well positioned. They seem to have the combination of different factors in their favor. What about Middle East, Russia, Australia?  long term economic prosperity is not certain as they are too dependent only on commodity.

If you have a question, about Global economy, feel free to ask.

http://www.redhawkinvestments.com

Bipin Agarwal
https://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about/

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