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Global Economy will accelerate significantly January 30, 2009

Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, IT Offshoring - Future Direction, Politics and economy, Quality of Living, Real Estate Development in Global Economy.

Next Twenty five years for the world will be significantly different from last one hundred years as far as economic growth and quality of life is concerned. There are lot of Think Tank (politically or business interest motivated), economist and so called expert and they like to predict the future based on past experiences related to recession and depression.  That is the path of least resistance, run some mathematical model and come out with the prediction. If you are right, then you are viewed as genious, if you wrong, people ignore. Current economic crisis is different from past, and future opportunity is also much larger because of the liklehood of broader consumer participation.

What is key difference in the past and future? Information flow and closing of the knowledge gap. World has yet to feel the real impact of internet and information flow as as  a result. We are still building the infrastructure and application for internet impact age. Internet infrastructure and associated applications will be in place in next few years. Just remember how car is a common means of transportation only in the developed world after fifty years. Full impact of this mobility around the world still has to be realized.

What are the three basic revolutionary changes in last several hundred years that will affect the masses and result into the economic growth.

  1. Invention of Clock – allowed us to capture the value of labor
  2. Personal/public transport vehicle – helped reduce the distance
  3. Internet – Information flow to masses

Impact of internet on economic growth will be more profound then any of us can imagine. Current global economic issues are just a blip. Here is why next twenty five years will see significant economic growth and improvement in average  Quality of Living of the world population.

  • Significant current economic problem is related to US and UK  credit crisis only because of  bubble in home prices, reckless spending by consumer, mis-management of policy by US government, social program, and wars.
  • Rest of world continues to save.
  • Internet is creating significant business opportunity for telecoms service providers, retailers, media company, manufacturing, and technology companies.
  • Alternative energy focus (wind and solar) will create significant business opportunity for energy companies, manufacture, service providers.
  • Non American world (Asia, central America, South America, Europe, Africa, and others) will have access to technology and infrastructure related to energy, transport, and internet that is available to only 20% of the world population currently.
  • Information availability will inspire people and will create significant need for consumption related to improving the quality of living. This will create significant opportunity for health care, organic farming, travel & tourism, electronics, real estate, etc.
  • World population is growing and will create significant opportunity for real estate and related service company to provide affordable housing.
  • Financial service sector will be core participant to this growth. All the business sectors require financing and financial sector will lead the growth beyond our imagination.

We should not confuse the global economic growth with the performance of stock market such as S&P, Nasdaq.  They are barely co-related. We can keep debating about the de-coupling of America with the rest of the world, the fact is that it has already happened. Just because at the present situation, stock market in Asia go down as the American stock market, it gives a false impression that there is no de-coupling. Just look, largest company market capitalization (China banks) are not even listed here. Not every company that will benefit from this opportunity will be listed on NYSE or NASDAQ.  Not every consumer that will participate in the economic growth is a resident of developed country.

If you have a question, about Global economy, Real Estate, and Politics correlation, feel free to ask


Bipin Agarwal




1. Bill Koelzer - January 17, 2009

What a great article! The First time I saw a friend log onto AOL in about 1996, and he told me what the Internet did, I somehow intuitively KNEW it would change the world. And the change is only just beginning. For example, my wife, Debbie Ferrari, a Realtor at DebbieFerrari.com marketing in Orange County, CA, is now getting callers and emails from other countries interested in buying beach front property here. But she believes that one day, buying or selling a home in Russia or China will be as easy as it is in the U.S. There will be a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for every country and they’ll all be searchable either for free or for a fee to not only Realtors, but anyone. For ME, a publicity consultant, I can place articles about U.S. client firms in Germany, or they can hire me to get their articles published here. It will all be done through interfaces that translate languages instantly, even as we type the words. The tower of Babel will be toppled. Nationalism might even be replaced by “World-ISM” and a sense that we are all brothers and sisters. What a day THAT will be, huh?

2. Liz Weisiger - January 28, 2009

These concepts couldn’t be more important as we face global climate
change. Well done. We need more folks that have your vision.
We all need to work together to make a real difference in our world.

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