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Future economy .vs. Bill Gross, George Soros, and Nouriel Roubini June 22, 2009

Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Future of transporation, Global Economy, Politics and economy, Recession.
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3 comments

Everybody who has any interest in economy, market, recession, recovery from financial meltdown, probably have either heard or read about these three people;

  1. Bill Gross (Bond king, PIMCO)
  2. George Soros (philanthropist, and ex. Hedge fund trader)
  3. Nouriel Roubini (Dr. doom, NYU economic professor)

If you are thinking, that these three ultra smart people will have similar views and thinking about the current and  future state of economy, You are dead wrong. Alan Greenspan, ex. Fed chairman is also very influential, who can move the market but you cannot count on making your economic strategy dependent on him, because he is a paid consultant and he is paid by the likes of PIMCO, UK government, political think tanks, etc. Let me first give you a little background of the above three people, on their incentive, and interest which I believe have hugely effected their views.

Bill Gross: This Sunday June 21st there was front page write up on Bill Gross in New York Times. Article outlined clearly that his view are more reflective of how he is going to make big money based on his partnership and connection with US government.  If it is good for him, that is what counts.  He is a fund manager and trader. He is a strong supporter of PPIP (Public-private investment program), because that is how he and his funds will make billions in fees and his investors may do well.

George Soros: Last week George Soros wrote in Financial Times that worst of the recession is behind us. Government should continue to do more in the form of stimulus until credit market is liquid, after that, they need to figure out as how to get out of the market and work on reducing their debt. Market are not efficient, his theory of reflexivity (or his fixation with the theory) drives his views. He is a big supporter of OBAMA administration. His life experiences are definitely inspiring. He spends more of his personal time on Philanthropy, and world cause. His most recent gift to Eastern Europe of 100 million dollars  to deal with economy is most recent example of giving.

Nouriel Roubini: Dr. Doom as he is now known in the world is a economic professor.  He is famous, is making lot of money by consulting, publishing research paper, etc. In the current economic environment, where People are fearful, will pay you a lot of money if they think you have a solution. The fact is, he has no solution, He only has suggestion to government that will not listen to him any way. He is in a safe zone. He is covered. If economy turns out to be his way, he is covered. If economy gets better I do not think people will ask him question and in any case, he will take the credit.

Conclusion & summary: After reading the overview I provided above, and off-course you should read more about them, you cannot formulate any definite point of view of the future economy.  But unfortunately, these are the guys who make headlines on Financial Times, New York times, CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo news, etc.  It is possible that you can make money by investing with Bill Gross, and his funds, You certainly do not want to buy expensive research form Roubini, that will make you only poor and no better insight then you already may have. George Soros is interesting. He is optimistic and making some good obvious suggestion to government.

I personally think that lot of the pain about residential real estate we had to go through is behind us. We still need to realize the full extent of losses for commercial real estate, credit card portfolio loss.  It is possible that the loans sitting on the balance sheet of financial institutions are still overvalued, so what? these loans will be written down over time when they mature or people decide to sell their house or foreclose. There could be another couple of hundred billions in write-off by financial and non-financial institutions, however that will not impact the economy much. Biggest unknown right now is, the USA government deficit financing and how it will impact the USA domestic and worldwide economy. Unfortunately, you one can not predict the economic outlook for short or medium term (up to 10 years) based on economic fundamentals only, economy is hugely effected by the political events and strategy. In the long run,  it is more important to know, who will come out as a winner once the dust settles down.  USA, China, Mexico, Germany, India, Africa, and Brazil are well positioned for long term overall economy. However it will not be a smooth ride. Hold your rope tight.

You have a question, about Global economy, Real Estate, and Politics correlation, feel free to ask.

http://www.redhawkinvestments.com

Bipin Agarwal

bipin.agarwal@redhawkinvestments.com

https://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/abou

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Walk Score and Twenty Minute Lifestyle April 27, 2009

Posted by Bipin Agarwal in Global Economy, Quality of Living, Real Estate Development in Global Economy, Real Estate Development in India, Real Estate development in USA.
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April 26, 2009

Today there was a front page article in Denver Post on Walk Score, a Colorado based company. The site give you a walk score based on different facilities from your address. you can check out more at www.walkscore.com

This is a good start but only a small step based on the Twenty Minute Lifestyle (tm) concept promoted by Redhawk Investments Group.  All of the development based on Twenty Minute Lifestyle will have a top walk Score of 100.

Walk Score alone is not enough for quality living. Quality of  living for a family is based on distance, facilities, and factors such as:

  • Place of work
  • Long term viability of business and quality of job opportunities
  • Environment
  • School for kids
  • Health care facilities
  • Recreation
  • Retail
  • Affordability
  • Quality of infrastructure to support walk or bicyle
  • Quality of transportation infrastructure to City or other important
  • Quality of neighborhood (income profile and education profile)
  • Connectivity to Airport, Highway, Railway station, etc.

I want to thank Walk Score team for validating the concept we have been promoting world wide for almost three years.  True quality of living that is vibrant, sustainable, and environment friendly, will require top down approach to future of real estate. Walk score is only a bottom up approach, more useful for real estate brokers then business, families, and environment.

We all know that if you live in down town and you work there, you can walk to lot of facilities, however there are lot of reason that families will not live there or should not live there;  including affordability, quality of neighborhood, safety, lack of family interactions, etc. You may have a perfect walk score but totally unsuitable environment to live. There are lot of neighborhood, where Walk Score will be 100, but weather you should live there is a decision you need to make based on factors outside the scope of walk score.  In short, Walk Score, good as a selling point for your real estate broker, not good for family. It is these factors, that makes Walk Score a bottom up effort as opposed to Top Down approach of  Twenty Minute Lifestyle micro city.

River Walk, a development planned in Fort Collins at I-25 and Harmony, is a good example of Twenty-Minute Lifestyle.  Development is planning a suitable mix of commercial, residential, health care, recreation, retail, community supported agriculture (CSA), and other amenities.  There be a hub for connecting to public transport infrastructure. When you are living in a Twenty Minute Lifestyle, Walk Score will always be 100 plus so many others things that can not be measured using Walk Score. There are several other such micro city around the world.

Future of real estate in the world will be a cluster of Twenty-Minute Lifestyle micro cities built around the efficient public infrastructure.  President Obama announced a high speed train infrastructure for US. This is what China is doing, This is what other developing countries are also planning. To read more about US infrastructure follow the link.

https://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/2009/04/18/obama-master-stroke-high-speed-train-infrastructure/

if you have a question, about Global economy, Real Estate, and Politics correlation, feel free to ask

http://www.redhawkinvestments.com

Bipin Agarwal

bipin.agarwal@redhawkinvestments.com

https://twentyminutelifestyle.wordpress.com/about